Can China’s “Open-Source Development Model” Work if the U.S. Won’t Pay the Bill?

The post–World War II global order, built on American hegemony, is ending. Until now, the U.S. has ensured the implementation of its own rules by bearing massive costs — especially military — to maintain international order. This allowed intellectuals from other countries, many of whom studied in the U.S. and supported liberal societies, to freely criticize American imperialism at conferences often funded by American institutions. However, with the new tariffs he announced yesterday, Donald Trump declared: “We will no longer fund the old world order.”

Things haven’t gone as the Americans had hoped for two main reasons: First, the wars they waged in Afghanistan and Iraq to “bring democracy” turned out to be extremely costly. Eventually, they realized that the populations of these countries didn’t even have a genuine demand for democracy. Second, the theory that trade with China would lead to democratization didn’t pan out. China grew stronger through trade, but it never democratized. On the contrary, it built an alternative model — what’s now being called the “open-source development model.” Let’s take a closer look.

Professor Zheng Yongnian, one of China’s leading social scientists, coined this concept. He taught for many years in Singapore and now teaches at the Shenzhen campus of the University of Hong Kong. Last week, many global CEOs traveled to China to meet with President Xi Jinping. Beijing is again welcoming foreign investors, especially in the tech sector, who were driven out during COVID-19. Professor Zheng made his remarks at one of the conferences organized around this renewed opening.

China’s economic development can be viewed in phases: When China began opening up to the world under Deng Xiaoping in 1978, it focused on export-led growth. Through initiatives like special economic zones and foreign investment incentives, it rapidly became the “world’s factory” and ran large current account surpluses.

The second phase began when the 2008 global financial crisis hit. That made the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) understand that exports could no longer grow forever, so China pivoted to state-backed investments to sustain growth. For instance, China produced 60% of the world’s cement during this period. Today, you can travel from Beijing to Shanghai by train in four hours, just like the Ankara-Istanbul route, but over three times the distance. These investments also created “ghost cities.” At the same time, China built enough capacity in electric vehicles, solar panels, and battery technology to exceed global annual demand, dominating these markets.

In March 2025, the CCP announced a new policy titled the “Special Action Plan to Promote Consumption,” signaling a shift from savings to domestic consumption as the growth engine. China had already begun responding to Trump’s tariff policies a month before they were officially announced.

Let’s return to the open-source development model. Professor Zheng draws an analogy with DeepSeek, the Chinese AI company that made headlines earlier this year. Reportedly, DeepSeek produces ChatGPT-level results at just 1/20th of the cost. It’s also open-source — you can even download it on your phone.

Using this example, Zheng made three key points in his speech:

First, Western institutions can no longer be relied upon for support. Trump has already shut down USAID; tomorrow, he could cut support for the IMF and World Bank.

Second, the U.S. has weaponized the dollar. Even if you’re not a party to a conflict, your banks or companies can be hit with sanctions.

Third, Western democracies are inherently unpredictable. Today’s promises may not pass parliament, or they might get overturned in court, or a new government might come in and reverse everything. None of these problems exist in China. It’s like having a model downloaded onto your phone — entirely within your control.

So, what does China offer? First and foremost, meritocracy — not populism. Did you know China has been conducting national civil service exams for 1,500 years? That was a millennium and a half before Turkey’s centralized government service exam, KPSS was introduced in 1999. To rise within the Communist Party, you must work hard and build strong networks. A popular joke goes: up-and-coming Chinese leaders eat three dinners a night — one at 6:00 p.m. with their subordinates, one at 7:30 with their superiors, and one at 9:00 with their mistresses. To understand China, you must realize that this system can guide 1.5 billion people.

What doesn’t China do? According to Professor Zheng, it doesn’t meddle in other countries’ domestic affairs or make political demands for cooperation. In an era when authoritarian leaders are gaining strength, isn’t that precisely the kind of approach they’d prefer?

As İsmet İnönü, the second President of the Republic of Turkey, once said, “A new world order would be established, and Turkey will find its place in it.” Today, we live in such a time. But to claim our place in this new world, we must first understand it. Debating the modernization of the Customs Union with the EU or learning multilateral global political economy from Carl Bildt won’t cut it anymore.

This article is a translated version of “ABD hesabı ödemezse Çin’in “açık kodlu kalkınma modeli” işe yarar mı?” which was initially published in Economic Daily (Nasıl Bir Ekonomi Gazetesi) in Economic Daily on April 04, 2025.