Influence Politics and TikTok in the Trump Era

Last August, Instagram briefly went offline in Turkey before being restored. This weekend, a similar incident occurred with TikTok, which was inaccessible for several hours. As I mentioned in March last year, the U.S. Congress passed a law requiring ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent company, to sell its U.S. operations or face a ban. The deadline for compliance expired on January 19, leading to a temporary suspension of TikTok. However, with Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the situation shifted. Let’s explore what happened and what could be next.

For those unfamiliar with how websites or apps are blocked in Turkey, here’s a quick summary: Turkey’s Access Providers Association (ESB) oversees all internet service providers, including mobile operators. When a court or regulatory authority issues a blocking order, it is sent to the ESB, instructing service providers to restrict access to the targeted app or website. If needed, internet speed can be throttled — a practice known as “bandwidth narrowing.”

The U.S. doesn’t have a comparable system. Instead, the TikTok-related law restricted app stores like App Store, Google Play, and hosting service providers from distributing, maintaining, or updating TikTok. Non-compliance carried a fine of $5,000 per user. Under this framework, TikTok wouldn’t be outright banned; it would become unusable over time due to a lack of updates.

This illustrates how even Americans have much to learn from emerging economies like ours. Here’s a humorous anecdote: After George W. Bush took three months to secure the 2001 election results, he reportedly called Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and said, “How do you announce election results in just three hours?” Following rigorous consultations with Egyptian experts, the following U.S. election results were announced in three hours — and Hosni Mubarak was elected!

Now, let’s turn to current developments in the U.S: TikTok’s CEO, Shou Chew, met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago even before his inauguration to seek support. As the January 19 deadline loomed, TikTok preemptively shut down its app on January 18, leaving 170 million Americans greeted with a “service unavailable” message. Amid the uproar, Trump tweeted, I’ll reopen TikTok once I take office on Monday, he said. That evening, TikTok announced it had agreed with Trump and reopened the app. Upon taking office on January 20, Trump issued an executive order delaying the law’s implementation by 75 days, pledging to find a resolution for TikTok’s ownership.

However, TikTok had made no real effort to sell its U.S. operations. Instead, it pursued legal challenges, but the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously upheld the law on January 17. The court ruled that the legislation didn’t violate free speech since TikTok’s sale was a viable option to remain operational. This highlights the post-truth era’s legal approach, where outcomes are justified retroactively. In this environment, persuading decision-makers is more critical than strict legal adherence, as laws can be molded or reinterpreted.

So, what’s next? Apple and Google have yet to reinstate TikTok in their app stores. Legal experts argue that Trump no longer has the authority to delay the law after its deadline. Nonetheless, Trump insists, “I reopened it!” and TikTok remains accessible. This is how the world’s oldest constitutional democracy operates.

In a tweet, Trump suggested, “If TikTok sells 50% of its U.S. operations to someone we approve, the issue could be resolved.” Elon Musk tweeted, “TikTok is open in the U.S., but X is banned in China. Unbelievable.” The Chinese Communist Party responded, “We do not interfere in the commercial decisions of our companies abroad.” However, China has long required government approval for any transfer of ownership involving strategic Chinese companies.

Trump has begun implementing strategies from his book The Art of the Deal, using TikTok as his first case study. He may force TikTok to sell part of its operations to American stakeholders or propose a mutual agreement: “Keep TikTok open in the U.S., and we’ll allow American internet applications in China.” The latter scenario would dramatically enhance Trump’s power and reputation. Elon Musk, who owns one of China’s largest electric vehicle factories (and the only one the Chinese Communist Party allowed to be solely owned by an American), might even mediate these negotiations.

With Trump’s second term, we are entering an era where influence outweighs law and the boundaries between corporate and governmental power blur. This trend will undoubtedly affect Turkey’s domestic and foreign policies.

This article is a translated version of “Trump döneminde nüfuz siyaseti ve Tiktok” which was initially published in Economic Daily (Nasıl Bir Ekonomi Gazetesi) in Economic Daily on January 24, 2025.