JD Vance: Could He Be MAGA’s Stalin?
When the Bolshevik Revolution took place in 1917 under the leadership of Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov — better known as Lenin — many believed it would be a temporary upheaval. Lenin remained in power until he died in 1924, but Joseph Stalin consolidated the revolution. By the time Stalin died in 1953, communists were in control not only in Soviet Russia but also across Eastern and Central Europe, China, North Korea, and many other parts of the world.
Those who analyze Donald Trump’s second term may draw lessons from the Bolshevik Revolution. Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement signifies significant changes in American domestic and foreign policy, like how the Bolshevik Revolution transformed global politics. Trump’s tenure will last four years, but the next MAGA leader — likely JD Vance, who recently left European leaders in tears at the Munich Security Conference — could emerge after him. In other words, JD Vance might become MAGA’s Stalin.
Ian Bremmer, head of the geopolitical risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, describes our current era as a geopolitical recession. We are familiar with economic recessions: demand drops, financial markets destabilize, businesses collapse, and economies contract. In the U.S., two consecutive quarters of negative growth officially define a recession. Because its definition is clear, there are well-established ways to recover from economic downturns, so most recessions last only a year or two.
Conversely, a geopolitical recession arises when shifts in global power disrupt existing institutions and political frameworks, resulting in uncertainty. Rather than relying on international systems, states turn inward, adopting a more competitive and less cooperative stance. Populations become more reactionary, electing populist leaders or reinforcing those already in power.
The outcomes? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, driven by its post-Cold War marginalization; America’s increasing hostility toward China, despite the latter’s integration into the global economy; and, of course, Trump and the resurgence of MAGA.
In upcoming elections worldwide, we will likely see MAGA’s ideological influence spreading to other Western democracies. It won’t be called MAGA but Make Europe Great Again (MEGA). The first signs of this are already visible: just this past Sunday, Elon Musk-backed Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the second-largest party in Germany’s elections.
Unlike economic recessions that typically last just a few years, geopolitical recessions unfold over decades — often lasting ten to twenty years. What’s striking, however, is that while business elites can easily recognize the signs of an economic downturn, they struggle to comprehend the nuances of geopolitical recessions.
Last week, Financial Times columnist Simon Kuper underscored this by referencing Napoleon’s famous remark: “To understand someone, look at what happened when they were twenty”. Today’s global business elite came of age in a time defined by the fall of the Iron Curtain, Nelson Mandela’s release from prison and emergence as South Africa’s president, and the rise of liberal ideas. They witnessed a political renaissance. But now, we find ourselves in a contrasting cycle.
Would it be surprising if Elon Musk took the stage at Davos next year and told the assembled business leaders, “Gentlemen, you can go home now — there’s a new sheriff in town, and your annual self-congratulatory meetings are no longer necessary”?
Discussions about the second Trump presidency often focus on foreign policy related to Turkey, likely because many Trump commentators are experts in international relations. However, Trump’s new term will significantly impact Turkey’s political and economic landscape.
Turkey accounts for about 1% of the global economy. We cannot afford to ignore reality. As the world order shifts, we need to position ourselves strategically. Both businesses and the government should have a clear strategy for adapting to this geopolitical recession.
Policymakers must shift course immediately. Trump is a transactional leader. If you align with his interests, he will readily support you in various areas. This leads us to an important rule: do not pursue policies that Trump openly rejects.
Last week, Trump announced his intention to impose sanctions on countries that implement policies restricting American tech companies, such as Digital Services Taxes and EU-style competition laws like the Digital Markets Act. Unsurprisingly, his primary target is the European Union.
As the geopolitical recession becomes increasingly apparent, Turkey should swiftly abandon its tendency to align with Europe on regulatory matters. Instead, we should start taking steps to align ourselves with the emerging new world order in a way that benefits our interests.
This article is a translated version of “JD Vance, MAGA’nın Stalin’i olabilir”which was initially published in Economic Daily (Nasıl Bir Ekonomi Gazetesi) in Economic Daily on February 28, 2025.
