Population trends in Asia, Europe, and the US, and their reflections on Turkey
As we step into the festive vibes of yet another Chinese New Year — cheers to that! — we find ourselves in the Year of the Dragon, a time when the allure of parenthood is deemed especially fortuitous. Reflecting on the past, during the Dragon Year of 1988, Singapore, with its majority Chinese populace, witnessed a baby boom, with newborns increasing by 25%. Fast forward to 2012, Canada’s Chinese-dominated areas saw a 16% hike in birth rates during the Dragon Year. This year, marking the first Dragon Year post the cessation of China’s one-child policy, has us all waiting with bated breath for the outcomes!
Indeed, the call for a population uptick resonates across China and the broader Asia-Pacific realm. With fertility rates plummeting to 1.7 in China, and even lower in Japan and Korea at 1.39 and 1.1, the demographic alarm bells are ringing. A fertility rate of 2.1 is the number needed for population stability, ensuring a one-for-one replacement for mom and dad, with a little extra to account for infant mortality. Europe’s scenario mirrors this concern; take Italy, for instance, with a fertility rate of a mere 1.24. In Germany and Italy, the median age has hit 45. My recent visit to a tech conference in Paris felt like stepping into a gathering more similar to the Istanbul’s Circle de Orient, highlighting my ‘youthful’ presence in a sea of seasoned attendees. Korea and Japan follow closely with median ages of 43 and 49, while China stands at 39.
The US, however, enjoys a relatively youthful demographic, with a median age of 38, thanks to stronger religious sentiments that shy away from birth control and abortion, unlike Europe and Asia-Pacific regions. Additionally, the US’s continuous influx of immigrants contributes to its demographic dynamics. Immigrants make up 17% of the US population, a stark contrast to Italy’s 8.7%. The US benefits from both immigration and the relatively higher birth rates among immigrants, promising sustained population growth in the medium term. Contrastingly, China, Korea, and Japan maintain a near-zero immigration rate, adhering to conservative immigration policies. Japan, for example, goes as far as denying citizenship rights to descendants of Japanese emigrants to Latin America, asserting “they’ve strayed too far from Japanese culture” (some 100 years).
Despite its substantial intake of immigrants, the American economy’s dynamism and labor market flexibility manage to create new employment niches for both American and immigrant youths alike. While the youth unemployment rate in the US sits at 9%, Italy is at a staggering 21%. Italian youth, despite facing unemployment, show little interest in factory jobs or simple service work, paving the way for labor imports from countries like Bangladesh. With 700 million people globally living in poverty — defined as living on less than 2 dollars a day — the pool of potential migrants willing to take up any job is vast, predominantly in Africa and South Asia.
As we see, the developed world’s aging population and the underdeveloped world’s burgeoning birth rates and migration trends complement each other. However, the sustainability of these migration trends hinges on the cultural structures of the developed countries. The US, founded on immigration, equates being American with embracing the so-called “Protestant ethics.” Conversely, Europe’s longstanding ethnic and cultural homogeneity poses challenges for integrating immigrants. Increasingly more and more Europeans think “Our culture outweighs the dynamism of our population!” Don’t they have a point?
Yet, even as the heart of Turkey beats strong, the pulse of population growth slows, dipping to 1.7 births per woman last year. For the first time since the dawn of the Republic, 2023 saw Turkey’s demographic dance come to a pause. Why? The tragedy of lives lost to the earthquake, coupled with the recent phenomenon of immigrants to Turkey leaving for abroad. As Turkey strides towards development and urban sophistication, its population ages, a testament to progress and the passage of time. Yet, the winds of migration blow strong, bringing with them questions of necessity and the enigma of cultural adaptation. Unlike Australia, an isolated continent where immigrants are cherry-picked picked through a meticulous points system (they constitute 30% of the population), Turkey stands at the crossroads of the global North and South, unable to isolate itself from the demographic flow that defines our era. In a world where migration is accelerating, one wonders what will be the anchor that holds Turkey steady.
This text is a translated version of “Asya, Avrupa ve ABD’de nüfus trendleri ve Türkiye” which was initially published in Economic Daily on February 16, 2024.
