Will There Be a Change in Power in South Africa Before the Second Coming?
General elections were held in South Africa on May 29. The African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority in parliament for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994.
The ANC’s former leader, Jacob Zuma, once responded to the question, “How long will the ANC stay in power?” by saying, “Until Jesus Christ returns.” Zuma’s mantra is still valid, as the ANC will continue to be the primary partner in the coalition government.
Let’s look at what has happened in South Africa since 1994. At that time, the population was divided into four groups based on their legal status: whites, coloreds, Asians, and blacks. Although South Africa was a British colony before gaining independence, most whites, who made up 11% of the population, were descendants of Dutch settlers who arrived during the early explorations and were engaged in agriculture. The descendants of those brought as slaves from countries like Indonesia and Malaysia were referred to as “coloreds.” Whites were at the top of the racial hierarchy, while blacks were at the bottom. Asians and coloreds held a higher status than blacks.
The political system even had “practical solutions” for ambiguous cases regarding racial classification. For instance, the “pencil test” was used to determine if someone was black; if a pencil placed in their hair stayed without falling, the person was considered black. Notably, the South African bureaucracy of the time had significant challenges defining who was Asian. For instance, Japan lobbied for Japanese nationals to be classified as whites rather than Asians. Blacks, who were in the most disadvantaged position, could not sit in the same places or work in the same jobs as whites. Since it was believed that blacks could not perform the same tasks as whites, all subjects except for the Bible were removed from their schools. With the establishment of a democratic regime in 1994, blacks (and other races) gained equal rights with whites. However, the disadvantaged groups lacked the skills the modern economy demanded.
The ANC government implemented the “Black Economic Empowerment” program, aiming to increase the economic integration of black people. According to this program, every company established in South Africa was required to have a black shareholder. However, the focus was not on equipping blacks with new skills, which was the main challenge. As a result, the program led to the emergence of a wealthy black elite class, but a black middle class never materialized. Naturally, the ANC, which comes from a Marxist-Leninist tradition, also aimed to secure workers’ rights. However, when OECD labor laws were applied in an economy with South Africa’s skill and population structure, it resulted in a society where half the population lived on social assistance.
If you ever visit Johannesburg, make sure to visit the old city center. Built in the 1960s, this area is lined with skyscrapers like city centers in the United States. However, after 1994, these skyscrapers were abandoned as whites began emigrating from the country. Nowadays, migrants from other African countries live in shabby offices, and their laundry hangs from the broken windows of the apartments. When I visited Johannesburg ten years ago, an Uber driver warned me not to walk around this area.
Institutional erosion in South Africa accelerated in the aftermath of the first black president, Nelson Mandela. The project to create a black elite class, social assistance, and the populist ANC government fell into the abyss of ignorance. For example, Jacob Zuma, during a trial related to a rape accusation before becoming president, said he “took a shower to prevent AIDS.” His predecessor, Thabo Mbeki, claimed that AIDS was a colonial invention, denied the link between HIV and AIDS, and removed treatment programs from state hospitals. Former Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang suggested fighting AIDS by consuming lemon, garlic, and olive oil. The state-party distinction vanished over the years of ANC rule, and institutional erosion worsened. Today, many regions in the country experience power outages for half the day. The Uber driver who warned me ten years ago can no longer offer rides because he cannot charge his mobile phone.
After the elections, the ANC has two options: The first is to form a coalition with more radical and populist parties that have emerged from within. These parties propose solutions like nationalizing the remaining properties of whites and closing the central bank. If the ANC follows this path, the country could quickly become another Venezuela. The other coalition alternative is with the party led by whites advocating more rational policies. However, it is still difficult for the ANC to justify a coalition with whites to its base, even 30 years after the end of apartheid. Let’s see what happens next.
This article is a translated version of “Güney Afrika’da İsa Mesih gelmeden iktidar değişir mi?” which was initially published in Economic Daily (Nasıl Bir Ekonomi Gazetesi) on June 7, 2024.
